COP15 is climate geek-speak for the 15th annual meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the U.N. climate convention.SORRY WE SCREWED UP THE PLANET
Probably the biggest tension at the conference is between the rich, developed world (that’s us!) and the developing world—i.e. the Third World, those billions of people whose lives just aren’t very cushy.
The poor countries say: “You guys got to grow rich by burning coal for 200 years. Now you want us to give up our dreams of 24-hour electricity and shopping malls? How dare you!”
That, in a nutshell, explains much of the diplomatic wrangling over global climate action.
FOLLOW THE MONEY, PART 1
Poor countries want to save the world too. But it’s gonna cost money—rich countries’ money. Probably the biggest obstacle on the international scene to getting a climate deal is figuring out how to pay to help poor nations prepare for a climate-changed world—a.k.a. “climate adaptation.”
FOLLOW THE MONEY, PART 2
The business community is all over the map when it comes to climate action. The usual “bad guy” suspects oppose efforts to curb carbon emissions. And conservatives the world over say carbon trading or carbon taxes amount to just another effort to choke economic growth and feed big government.
The “good guys” in the biz world are a pretty diverse lot. Some are clean energy and technology types who will profit from shifting toward renewable energy sources and efficiency. Some are responding to consumer pressure to at least look like they are doing something to save the world. Some business leaders may actually be concerned about the state of the planet. It’s a motley crew.
THE PRICKLY PLAYERS
Getting a climate treaty approved will require balancing the competing interests of countries that aren’t exactly Third World and aren’t exactly rich—Russia, China, India, Brazil (for starters). Each of these countries could make or break a deal.
Russia: Besides being a KGB/Mafia-run autocracy, it’s a huge energy producer. There’s lots of oil in Russia’s Far East, and tons of natural gas (which Europe relies on).
China: If China’s economy fails to grow, the Communist-in-name-only regime will be toppled. Right now, the 5-6 percent annual growth Beijing needs is being achieved by burning lots of coal. China’s leaders do understand that climate change is real. They are pumping bagillions of yuan into clean energy and technology research. But it’ll be a while before that pays off, so for now the Chinese don’t want to commit to firm carbon caps.
India: If you think America is tricky to engage, take a look at India. Despite all the economic growth there in the past two decades, much of the country remains very poor. India’s leaders are saying two different things: to Indian voters, they’re saying, “Screw the West, we’ll grow however we want.” To the West, “We understand the climate challenge. We want to be part of the solution.”
Brazil: Here’s another increasingly rich country that needs continued economic growth to deal with its own poverty problem. It’s gonna cost the West some serious $ to keep the Amazon forest from being slashed and burned. What this means is that a powerful voice will be speaking on behalf of poor countries that are looking to get paid for not chopping down their forests.
KEEP HOPE ALIVE?
Yeah, Obama won the election! Everything is immediately better, right?
SEE YOU NEXT YEAR IN MEXICO!
COP16 will happen next December in Mexico. Obama and other world leaders recently said they will reach a “politically binding agreement” in Copenhagen, which is fancy diplomatic speak for, “We’ll hunker down in our Danish study hall and bang out as much homework as we can, but there’s no way we’re getting this project turned in before next semester.”
This would be funnier if it weren't true.
No comments:
Post a Comment